Britain's science academy, the Royal Society said this week
that the implications of global population growth would be the focus of
its latest study.
Population plays a central role in various areas, such as food
security, energy supply or water, said Sir John Sulston, who is chairing
the society's working group of experts.
"We think it's important to look at population because it is in some
sense the underlying variable," Sulston told Deutsche Welle. "Now is the
right time to be looking at it in a deep and dispassionate way by
looking at the scientific evidence behind the numbers that are
increasingly bandied about in polarizing debates."
According to UN figures, the world population reached 6.5 billion in 2005 and is expected to surpass seven billion by 2012.
Population growth and the role it plays in sustainable development
has been a point of debate among scientists for decades. Some experts
from developing nations argue that population has been put forth to
distract from the more urgent need to reduce consumption in wealthy
countries. Other schools of thought view the population problem as one
that will eventually regulate itself. But Sulston, who won the Nobel
Prize in 2002 for his work on the human genome, stressed the
impartiality of the study.
"I think what we can offer is our own particular brand of
science-based evidence," he added, and noted that there would be no
"taking sides."
"I don't want either passionate advocates of a particular view, nor
do I want deniers who say there's no problem," he said. "I want
objective, factual investigation, and that's what we're going to do."
The society said that the issue made its way back to the top of the
political agenda in the run-up to the December 2009 Copenhagen
conference on climate change.
Avoiding one-size-fits-all
The project's working group includes experts from the fields of
economics, demography, theology and the environment. Scientists from
various developed countries are involved, such as the United Kingdom and
the United States, as well as from developing nations like Brazil and
China.
Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Sulston won the 2002 Nobel Prize for his work on genome sequencing
Sulston said the society's experts would be looking at more than just
scientific elements. Culture, gender, economics and law would also be
examined.
He said the composition of the working group ensured that the
findings would be "comprehensive and cross-disciplinary and bring
understanding of population issues to the cutting edge." He did not,
however, provide details on the methodology. The society said it would
soon issue a call for evidence.
According to a society statement, the report will be aimed at
national and international policymakers, donors and funders, as well as
scientific bodies and non-governmental organizations.
"It will focus particularly on how scientific and technological
developments might alter the rate and impact of population changes," the
society said in the statement, adding that it would acknowledge
regional variations in population dynamics.
A cautious welcome
Wolfgang Lutz, director of the Vienna Institute of Demography, said
he welcomed any "new impetus" the Royal Society study could provide to
the discussion. But he said much would depend on the study's members.
"The neo-Malthusians are strongly represented in the Royal Society and are a driving force," Lutz told Deutsche Welle.
Neo-Malthusians base their ideas on the writings of the Reverend
Thomas Robert Malthus. In his well-known 1798 essay on population, the
British scholar argued that increases in the number of people on the
planet would eventually diminish the ability of the world to feed
itself.
Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Educated women can have an enormous impact on population growth
"So they believe that every species regulates itself," said Lutz, the
initiator and coordinator of the UN-affiliated Global Science Panel on
Population and Environment. But Lutz said the significance of human
capital, which included education, could not be excluded.
"In my opinion, the question of the rising world population is a
question of education, most importantly of women," Lutz said. "Education
is the key."
The Royal Society said it expects to conclude its study in early
2012. If the conclusions were "politically acceptable," Lutz said, they
could find their way into future policies.
"If a new plausible aspect materializes from this study, then it can
have an impact on sustainable development policies," Lutz said.
"Otherwise, experience shows that it will simply fizzle out."
Authors: Sabina Casagrande/Sophie Tarr
Editor: Cyrus Farivar
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5793789,00.html
